Two ways to miss: bias and variance

Draw 20 fresh datasets and fit each one. Stiff models miss the same way every time (bias). Flexible models scatter (variance). Scroll to panel C.

Try this

Panel C: press Draw 20 datasets at degree 1, then 4, then 15.
Before reading the message, name which picture is bias and which is variance.
Then slide Examples to 200 and redo degree 15: the bundle tightens. More data lowers variance.

This is part of Session 2 of How AI Learns. The full session adds the story, the Python build and a boss challenge.